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Feb 14, 2026
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LONG
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Coinbase has launched "Agentic Wallets" enabling autonomous AI agents to hold funds, execute trades, and pay for resources, removing human bottlenecks and signaling the arrival of the "Agentic Web" with gasless trading on Base. This infrastructure positions Coinbase at the forefront of the emerging AI-driven financial ecosystem. Increased autonomous agent activity will drive transaction volumes, user growth on Base, and potentially new revenue streams for Coinbase, as it becomes the gateway for AI's financial interactions. Long Coinbase (COIN) as a direct beneficiary of the "Agentic Web" and the increasing financial autonomy of AI agents, leveraging its infrastructure and Base network. Regulatory backlash against autonomous AI financial activity; security breaches or vulnerabilities in Agentic Wallets; intense competition from other crypto exchanges or decentralized protocols; slower-than-expected adoption of AI agents in finance. |
Substack - Chamath Palihapitiya
Giving AI Agents Purchasing Power...
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Feb 14, 2026
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LONG
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Isomorphic Labs' IsoDDE more than doubles AlphaFold 3's accuracy in drug design, enabling the discovery of drugs for previously "undruggable" diseases like KRAS and Cereblon. Deep Origin also has a comparable physics-informed docking engine. This represents a paradigm shift in drug discovery, potentially leading to a wave of new drug candidates and treatments for complex diseases. Companies that are either developing these advanced AI platforms or are early adopters of such technologies in their R&D pipelines stand to gain significantly from accelerated and more effective drug development. Long Biotech Innovation ETF (e.g., ARKG, XBI) or specific biotech companies heavily investing in AI-driven drug discovery, as the IsoDDE breakthrough signals a new era of accelerated and more effective drug development. High failure rates inherent in drug development; regulatory hurdles for new AI-designed drugs; intense competition in the AI drug discovery space; long lead times for commercialization; ethical concerns surrounding AI in drug design. |
Substack - Chamath Palihapitiya
Giving AI Agents Purchasing Power...
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Feb 14, 2026
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LONG
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Gemini 3 Deep Think is designed to solve complex scientific, research, and engineering challenges, including optimizing fabrication methods for new semiconductor materials. The performance metrics are record-breaking. The ability of AI to design and optimize semiconductor material fabrication methods will accelerate innovation and efficiency in the semiconductor industry. This implies a continued, if not increased, demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment and specialized materials, as well as the chips themselves, to support these AI-driven advancements. Long Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturers (e.g., ASML, AMAT, LRCX) or a Semiconductor ETF (e.g., SMH, SOXX) as they will benefit from the AI-driven acceleration in materials science and fabrication optimization, leading to higher demand for their products and services. Cyclical downturns in the semiconductor industry; geopolitical tensions impacting supply chains; oversupply of chips; slower-than-expected adoption of AI in manufacturing optimization. |
Substack - Chamath Palihapitiya
Giving AI Agents Purchasing Power...
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Feb 14, 2026
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LONG
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Google DeepMind's Gemini 3 Deep Think shows record-breaking performance in complex scientific, research, and engineering challenges, including optimizing semiconductor material fabrication. Isomorphic Labs (Alphabet subsidiary) launched IsoDDE, a "full-cycle" drug design engine, significantly improving drug discovery. Alphabet (Google's parent company) is demonstrating leadership in foundational AI research and its application across multiple high-value sectors (semiconductors, biotech). These advancements solidify its competitive edge in AI and open new potential revenue streams or efficiency gains across its diverse portfolio. Long Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) as a diversified play on advanced AI innovation, benefiting from breakthroughs in core AI reasoning and specialized applications like drug discovery and materials science. Intense competition from other tech giants in AI development; regulatory scrutiny on AI dominance; failure to commercialize these advanced AI capabilities effectively; significant R&D costs without proportional returns. |
Substack - Chamath Palihapitiya
Giving AI Agents Purchasing Power...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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"Is on-prem the new cloud?... Once you use these tools, it is very difficult for a company to be able to control how their data is used... The only solution is to have the pendulum swing all the way back and have private provisioned networks." Enterprises will panic about leaking IP to public models (like OpenAI/Anthropic). This forces a massive capex cycle into local hardware and private clouds. Companies that sell the hardware for local inference (Apple Mac Studios were explicitly mentioned as the current solution) and the chips to run private clusters (Nvidia, AMD) will capture this spend. Long hardware providers enabling "Sovereign AI" and local inference. Public cloud providers (AWS/Azure) solve the privacy layer faster than hardware can be deployed on-prem. |
All-In Podcast
Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Ins...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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"The general trend since 1700 to now [for Debt to GDP] is up and to the right... You got to find ways of hedging and owning real durable assets because the underlying currency... will fluctuate wildly and just fall off of a cliff." Fiscal discipline is politically impossible. Governments will continue to print money to service debt, leading to currency debasement. To protect purchasing power, investors must own assets with finite supply that cannot be inflated away by central banks. Long Hard Assets (Gold and Bitcoin) as a hedge against fiscal dominance and currency erosion. A "black swan" deflationary event or radical government austerity that strengthens the dollar. |
All-In Podcast
Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Ins...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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"FSD and autonomy is going to shift the number of people that even know what it means to drive... the rest of us will be using FSD or Waymo." As insurance costs rise and convenience increases, human driving will become obsolete for the masses. Tesla (via FSD) is positioned to capture the mass market of "transportation as a service," making their software margin profile superior to traditional auto manufacturing. Long Tesla as a robotics/AI play, not a car company. Regulatory hurdles for Level 5 autonomy or competition from Waymo. |
All-In Podcast
Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Ins...
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Feb 13, 2026
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LONG
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"There's a Ferrari experience that's different from every other car... In places like China and India, they're always going to have a market." As driving becomes automated for the masses, manual driving becomes a luxury hobby for the ultra-wealthy (similar to horse riding). Ferrari is a Veblen good that retains value and pricing power regardless of the shift to EVs or autonomy. Long Ferrari as a luxury holding, immune to the commoditization of transport. Brand dilution if they fail to execute on their EV transition (though the interior design was praised). |
All-In Podcast
Debt Spiral or NEW Golden Age? Super Bowl Ins...
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Feb 07, 2026
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LONG
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President Trump's "Project Vault" establishes a $12 billion strategic reserve for critical minerals, backed by $10 billion from EXIM Bank and private capital, to counter China's dominance and secure supply chains. This includes bilateral agreements with 11 countries. This initiative creates a stable price floor and guaranteed demand for non-Chinese critical mineral sources. Government funding and international partnerships will de-risk investments in mining, processing, and refining outside of China, leading to |
Substack - Chamath Palihapitiya
SpaceX-xAI Merger: The $1.25T Company...
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Feb 04, 2026
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LONG
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Distributed solar bypasses rising transmission, distribution, and grid delivery costs by generating electricity where it is consumed. Aggregated distributed systems (Virtual Power Plants or VPPs) can coordinate thousands of rooftops and batteries to deliver capacity comparable to traditional gas plants during peak hours. This model addresses the "last mile" cost problem of electricity, offers direct cost savings to consumers, and provides valuable grid relief and stability services through VPPs. It represents a significant growth area as grid infrastructure costs continue to rise. Long opportunities in companies involved in residential/commercial distributed solar installations, battery storage solutions, and virtual power plant aggregation software/services. Regulatory hurdles for VPP integration, high upfront costs for consumers (though declining), competition from utility-scale projects, technological obsolescence, local grid constraints. |
Substack - Chamath Palihapitiya
Why Is Solar Attracting $500B Every Year...
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Feb 04, 2026
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LONG
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Utility-scale solar projects are reaching multi-gigawatt scale, with data centers, manufacturers, and hyperscalers increasingly contracting directly through long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs). Data center operators alone signed over 40% of all clean energy PPAs in 2024. This indicates robust, predictable demand from large, creditworthy corporate off-takers for long-term solar power, de-risking development and ensuring stable revenue streams for utility-scale solar providers. The "cheapest major source of new electricity" status further underpins this demand. Long positions in companies specializing in developing, owning, and operating large-scale solar farms, particularly those with a strong PPA pipeline with corporate off-takers like data centers. Grid connection bottlenecks, intermittency issues requiring significant storage investment (which adds cost), rising interest rates impacting project financing, policy changes affecting PPAs or incentives. |
Substack - Chamath Palihapitiya
Why Is Solar Attracting $500B Every Year...
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Feb 04, 2026
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LONG
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China controls 80-95% of global solar manufacturing, leading to Western supply chain dependency with no fast rebuild path. Chamath explicitly asks, "Where does the opportunity for U.S. energy dominance exist while China controls 80% of global hardware manufacturing?" This strategic vulnerability and the desire for "U.S. energy dominance" will likely drive significant policy support (e.g., tax credits, subsidies, tariffs, domestic content requirements) to incentivize domestic solar manufacturing and supply chain development in the US and other Western nations. Long opportunities in US-based solar manufacturing companies (polysilicon, wafers, cells, modules) or those focused on rebuilding Western supply chains, anticipating strong government backing and strategic investment. Continued overwhelming cost advantage of Chinese manufacturers, insufficient or inconsistent policy support, slow ramp-up of Western capacity, geopolitical tensions escalating beyond economic incentives. |
Substack - Chamath Palihapitiya
Why Is Solar Attracting $500B Every Year...
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Feb 04, 2026
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SHORT
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Solar is now the cheapest major source of new electricity ($30–$40 per MWh LCOE) compared to coal and gas ($50–$150+ per MWh). The world installed more new solar generation than coal, gas, nuclear, wind, and hydro put together last year. The significant cost advantage and rapid deployment of solar will increasingly displace traditional fossil fuel generation, leading to reduced utilization, declining profitability, and potential stranded assets for companies heavily reliant on coal and gas power plants. Short positions or AVOID on companies primarily engaged in the operation and development of coal and gas-fired power plants, as their competitive position erodes and market share declines. Slower-than-expected solar deployment, grid stability issues requiring fossil fuel backup, policy reversals favoring fossil fuels, unexpected increases in solar costs, geopolitical events impacting energy supply. |
Substack - Chamath Palihapitiya
Why Is Solar Attracting $500B Every Year...
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Jan 31, 2026
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WATCH
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Neuralink has expanded human clinical trials to 21 participants, showing improved signal quality, and is launching new trials for "VOICE" (speech restoration) and "Blindsight" (visual perception) with FDA Breakthrough Device designation. While Neuralink is private, its rapid progress and FDA Breakthrough designation highlight the immense potential and accelerating innovation within the broader neurotechnology and medical device sectors. This could lead to increased investor interest and R&D spending in companies developing BCI, neuro-stimulation, and other advanced medical implants. Watch the Neurotechnology / Medical Devices sector for potential opportunities. While direct investment in Neuralink is not possible, its success could create a halo effect for public companies in the space, or signal future M&A activity. Neuralink's technology is still nascent and highly experimental; regulatory approval processes are lengthy and stringent; the market for such advanced devices may be niche initially. |
Substack - Chamath Palihapitiya
Neuralink's 21 Telepathy Trials in 2 Years...
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Jan 31, 2026
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LONG
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Google DeepMind just published AlphaGenome, an AI model that significantly advances DNA analysis, particularly for non-coding DNA, and has been released for free, non-commercial use to accelerate research and personalized gene therapies. AlphaGenome is a product of Google DeepMind, directly enhancing Alphabet's intellectual property and demonstrating its leadership in cutting-edge AI research with profound real-world applications. This innovation strengthens Alphabet's position as a dominant force in AI, with potential long-term benefits across its cloud, healthcare, and research divisions, even if direct monetization isn't immediate. Long Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) due to its continued innovation in AI, exemplified by AlphaGenome, which reinforces its competitive advantage and potential for future growth in high-impact sectors like biotech and healthcare. Broader market downturns, increased regulatory scrutiny on large tech companies, or slower-than-expected commercialization of DeepMind's research. |
Substack - Chamath Palihapitiya
Neuralink's 21 Telepathy Trials in 2 Years...
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Jan 31, 2026
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LONG
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Google DeepMind's AlphaGenome is poised to "cut the timeline for personalized gene therapies by years" and accelerate disease understanding. Neuralink's progress in BCI, particularly "VOICE" and "Blindsight" with FDA Breakthrough designation, indicates significant advancements in treating neurological and sensory disorders. These AI-driven breakthroughs in genomics and neurotechnology will act as powerful catalysts for the entire biotechnology and medical device sectors. Faster drug discovery, more precise diagnostics, and revolutionary treatments for previously untreatable conditions will drive innovation and revenue growth for companies operating in these spaces. Long the Biotechnology/Genomics sector via ETFs, anticipating accelerated innovation, reduced R&D timelines, and expanded market opportunities driven by AI tools like AlphaGenome and BCI advancements. Regulatory hurdles for new therapies, clinical trial failures, intense competition, and the long development cycles inherent in biotech. |
Substack - Chamath Palihapitiya
Neuralink's 21 Telepathy Trials in 2 Years...
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Jan 31, 2026
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LONG
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Figure AI's Helix 02 model and Figure 03 humanoid robot demonstrate a breakthrough in "Full-Body Autonomy" and loco-manipulation, enabling delicate tasks and replacing extensive manual coding with neural networks trained on human motion. This significant leap in humanoid robotics, while from a private company, signals a maturing of the technology that will eventually permeate various industries. Publicly traded companies involved in robotics components, industrial automation, AI for robotics, and even early adopters of advanced automation solutions are likely to benefit from this accelerating trend. Long the Robotics & Automation sector via ETFs, anticipating increased adoption and investment in advanced automation solutions as humanoid robots become more capable and cost-effective, driven by breakthroughs like Figure AI's. High development costs, slower-than-expected commercial adoption, ethical concerns surrounding AI and robotics, and potential for technological setbacks. |
Substack - Chamath Palihapitiya
Neuralink's 21 Telepathy Trials in 2 Years...
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Jan 31, 2026
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LONG
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Chamath states, "Yesterday, Elon shut down the Model S and Model X production lines in Fremont... to make Optimus." This confirms Tesla is transitioning from a pure EV car company to a robotics/labor substitution company. If Optimus scales ("put two in your garage"), the TAM expands from transportation to the entire labor market. LONG. The market likely still prices TSLA as an auto manufacturer, not a labor supplier. Execution risk on Optimus; loss of revenue from high-margin S/X models in the interim. |
All-In Podcast
ICE Chaos in Minneapolis, Clawdbot Takeover, ...
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